Western sanctions: Is Russia this time subject?

US President Joe Bidin announced, on the evening of Tuesday, February 22, 2022, a new package of sanctions against Russia.Biden vowed that Russia will witness more sanctions than it witnessed after its invasion of Crimea.The punishment in international law is a procedure imposed by a state on another country to prevent it from acting aggression or violating international law.

The goal of the sanctions mostly is to damage the economy of the state that is punished or financial activities for senior politicians and those responsible in that state..In international law, the penalties are considered the most firm procedures, then the war is followed directly.Countries resort to penalties when understanding with the opponent is difficult for diplomatic methods.And most importantly, when other countries do not have enough military ability to subjugate the stubborn party.

As for the new package of US sanctions, Russian banks and Russian international financial institutions are targeted.He also announced sanctions that will affect personalities close to Putin, and added that the sanctions target the Russian economy mainly, in a way that does not harm the stability of global energy markets..That clarification in itself is enough to reassure the Russian side, it means that the West is not only thinking of the pain of Russia, but at the same moment how it protects its citizens from the effects of sanctions, which indicates that the sanctions will not affect enough on the Russian side.

The sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 were to freeze the assets of 11 Russian officials, and to prevent them from granting them visas to the United States.The sanctions also froze the assets of the Bank of Russia, and prevented Putin's assistant, deputy prime minister, and others from entering the United States.Then the United States issued a decision to prevent the export of any defensive products or services to Russia.For its part, Russia issued similar sanctions and prevented a number of US officials from entering its territory.

Prohibition of the US dollar

Then the penalties expanded and included the pro -Putin -Ukrainian oil companies.And 14 separatist officials loyal to Putin.Then 8 major weapons companies, including the Russian arms giant Kalashnikov.The United States prevented the export of oil and gas technologies to Russia.Moscow has replied by preventing the import of many food products from the United States and European countries that supported US sanctions.

The United States expanded the sanctions until the ban on importing and exporting goods to the Crimea after the Russian control over it.It also prevented the export of techniques used in water exploration.The United States continued throughout 2015 and 2016 to add new individuals and additional entities to the lists of sanctions..Members were imposed on the Duma Council in the Crimea.Then in 2017 the United States extended the sanctions for an additional year, then extended it for a new year despite the relatively calm conditions between Russia and Ukraine.For its part, Russia has issued a request to 60 American diplomats to leave Russia, and extended its ban on export and import from the United States.

After the recent Russian aggression on Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, Japan, Taiwan and Canada imposed new sanctions on Russia.Britain, Canada and Switzerland targeted in their sanctions, Russian banks, the wealthy of the circles close to Putin, and the wealthy Russians who are far from politics, but who are famous for the obscene wealth in London.As for the European Union, it imposes sanctions targeting 70% of the Russian banking sector.And Japan announced that it would freeze its assets placed in some Russian banks.

There are also threats of additional sanctions that Russia may face, such as exclusion from the financial exchange system known as "Swift"."Swift" is a system run by the World Communications Association between banks, and is used by thousands of financial institutions around the world.The exclusion of Russia from it will make it very difficult for Russian banks to carry out any financial transactions outside the country.However, this will lead to a major impact on American and German banks for their close dealing with Russian banks, so Western countries retain this procedure to the end of the day..

The United States also can prevent Russia from dealing with US dollars.This means that any company that deals with a Russian institution and receives the opposite in US dollars will also be subjected to sanctions.But this also means that Russian oil exports may decrease, which will affect energy prices in Europe.

Punishment for deprivation of the mobile

Also imposed is the position of Russian banks in the black list, which will make it impossible to conduct international financial transactions.What means that Russia will suffer from an inflation wave that the state may have to interfere with cash liquidity to take off banks.But this will affect the western investor who has huge balances in those banks.Russia also has a cash reserve of $ 630 billion in its central bank to prevent these financial shocks.

The United States also can prevent technology companies from exporting semiconductors used in cars, smartphones, or space industries to Russia.This will be a severe blow to Russian industries, but the dependency will harm the exporting companies.

Or the United States pursues the approach to dealing with the Chinese Huawei in dealing with Russian phones manufacturers.Penalties deprive the Russians of their favorite phones of new generations, or laptops.Any American company can block its smart applications from the Russian side.But taking into account that China has easily exceeded the Huawei crisis, and that Russia has a Russian alternative to every possible application, Russia can easily overcome the crisis, whether alone or with the help of China.

The Russian economy can be described as a fortified economy due to the huge reserve of foreign currencies.Because Russia's external religion does not exceed 20% of GDP, which is one of the lowest rates in the world.The US dollar is only used by Russia in half of its international transactions, after it was using it in 80% of its transactions twenty years ago.

Putin knows how to make up for his men

All of this fortification started only after the sanctions that followed the invasion of the Crimea.The sanctions will also raise oil prices, which will provide Russia with huge profits of $ 17 billion annually.What may compensate for the losses that the penalties may cause, which are expected to be submitted by the local product by 3.Just 5%.

That is why the influence of Western sanctions on Russia remains a marginal effect, and Russia can survive it.In order for the Western powers a painful blow to the Russian bear, it will also have to bear their share of pain from the consequences of these sanctions.The survival comes from the power of the Russian economy on the one hand, and to the presence of other countries that Russia can resort to to compensate for what the West prevented it from it.China is one of the most prominent of these countries. The two countries have signed contracts for exporting oil and gas that have reached 25 years.

It is also noticeable that the European harmonious harmony regarding the extent of the cruelty that the West must reach in the sanctions is imprisoned..Berlin imports 46% of natural gas from Russia.No other country can compensate Germany for that, even if Germany asks the Gulf states, it will take this month of infrastructure..The United States cannot bridge the void that will succeed the Russian side.

Putin realizes this well so it looks indifferent to Western sanctions, whether it has already been applied or that Western officials vow to implement.Because he certainly expected this step on the part of Europe.That is why, by reducing dependence on the dollar, and directing trade to Southeast Asian countries, was able to maintain the stability of the Russian economy in the event of its isolation in the western..

Putin also knows how investors who are affected by foreign sanctions compensate.The wealthy who lost their homes in London, or their accounts in American banks have obtained huge contracts for contracting or energy in Russia..Therefore, Western sanctions do not perform the desired goal by provoking the discontent of the political elite or the rich class of Putin, but rather the contrast is closer to them than Putin..

The West did not learn the lesson

Also, betting on the excitement of the Russian interior against Putin is illogical.Putin rules with an iron fist, and he can suppress any sound from the inside calling for submission to Western sanctions.

The most important thing is that Putin during the past eight years, after the Crimean sanctions, has reduced the level of individual income and the total standard of living for the Russian citizen.He reduced Western imports for less than a quarter, and Russian companies paid the amounts due to external creditors, which led to the reduction of the external debt for less than a third.

This means that if Russia is completely isolated from the world for a whole year, and the sanctions are prevented 100% of Russian exports and imports, Russia will continue to life at the current pace without the Russian citizen noticing any difference, and it will even have a surplus of gold reserves and coins..Also, the Western citizen who believes in democracy and a luxurious life cannot be compared to the Russian citizen who adheres to the adequate national and social depth to circumvent the political leadership and bear a degree of austerity in order to face the control of the West on Russia.

Russia has given well sanctions, but it is clear that the West was the one who did not understand it, and has not reduced its dependence on the hands of Russian energy until today.It seems that the price that the United States and Western will pay from the sanctions will be greater than Russia will pay, and the most prominent price will be paid at the time of lifting these sanctions, because lifting the sanctions means the loss of one of the parties is its dignity and the water of its face, and the current data seems to be that this party will not be Russia.