Is it possible for a new commodity mutation to revive the Brazilian economy?

A farmer collects coffee beans in Esperito Santo."French"

Since the mid -eighties of the last century, the manufacturing share of GDP has decreased to half."a.B"

Negoyera shows that almost every cup of orange juice is drunk around the world comes from Brazilian states of Sao Paulo."We have everything starting with the letter C..Then start by telling the Portuguese names of the products cultivated in the area, coffee (coffee), sugar cane (Cana), citrus, meat (Karn) and cellulose the main component of paper making.He adds, "Agriculture takes growth more and more, and this is not only a virtue for our region, but for Brazil.".This country in South America is the largest food producer in the world now - from soybeans to sugar to meat to bananas.Brazil is blessed with a abundance of natural resources, such as huge iron ore deposits and oil reserves in the depths of the seas. Brazil also provides some of the most important raw materials for modern economies..The largest economy in Latin America is now witnessing a rise in the prices of many of these basic products, with the raised restrictions of Kovid -19 and the return of global growth..There is an hadith that revolves among the merchants optimistic about a "superior cycle" of new commodities.The influence was severely perceived in the agricultural sector in Brazil.In addition to the weakness of the exchange rate, which enhances revenues from products that are priceful in dollars, this is a blessing for many Brazilian farmers and surrounding societies.Maurillo Piaget Felho, a businessman and ethanol businessman in Riberao Preto, describes the integrity of agricultural prices and standard production as "very rare".."When this happens, you have both things, this is unusual.".The region is around the city of Ribero Preto, or as it is sometimes called "Brazilian California", evidence of the prosperity that occurred through an explosion in the agricultural sector in the country over recent decades.Porsche and BMW cars are scattered between rows of highly luxurious apartments in the southern region of the municipality.The population has increased by two -thirds over the past 30 years.However, wealth is far from the problems that attack large parts of the nation with a population of 213 million.Millions have lost their work due to the general health crisis, which led to an unprecedented unemployment rate at 15 percent.In a country with a large number of residents, the famine increased with the payment of inflation - to a large extent driven by the high prices of Brazilian goods in international markets - for daily materials away from hand..For ordinary citizens and investors alike, how the goods recovery will have an important impact not only on the recovery period in Brazil from Kovid -19, but on their fate in the coming years.There are hopes to launch the economy, which was slow even before the pandem.Gustavo Arouda, economist in BNB Pariba, says there is a "opportunity window" that opens for Brazil.He adds, "There is a boom that we can benefit from.You can spend [gains] and do nothing.Or to try to achieve the maximum benefit and to achieve things, ”referring to structural reforms to make the economy more competitive as the promise has been made two decades ago.Despite the renewed optimism, there are consequences that may prevent the translation of the high prices of new commodities to a wider recovery.It will require policy makers to avoid errors of the prosperity of previous commodities in the early 21st century.After it was then one of the beloved emerging markets, Brazil was disappointing at a later time, as opportunities were lost to enhance productivity by improving infrastructure and reducing the routine.Parallel to the agricultural boom, a significant decline in the manufacturing sector in Brazil, with the closure of factories and the demobilization.The way in which Brazil struggle with these two trends may be determined whether the country can liberate from an old pattern of prosperity and oxidation that belongs to the state’s assets as a resource colony.وفي مقر نقابة عمال المعادن في منطقة "aيه بي سي"، التي سميت على اسم ثلاث مدن صناعية جنوب ساوباولو، حيث صنع الرئيس السابق "لويس إيناسيو لولا دا سيلفا" اسمه كقائد إضراب خلال الديكتاتورية العسكرية، يقول المدير أروالدو أوليفيرا دا سيلفا إن الزراعة المزدهرة وحدها لن تكون كافية لرفع المجتمع.He says, "[When] ends once and for all, we will actually be an agricultural country.But then we will be in absolute misery.Because at the present time, agriculture has become a mechanism that it does not accommodate employment.Brazil will not support itself with commercial agricultural business alone..Al -Alawal Bread basket, the history of Brazil, mostly the wealth was linked to the export obsession.From sugar in the early days of the Portuguese invasion to gold and coffee and the Amazon rubber mania in the late 19th century.During the early 21st century, Brazil crossed the wave of the superb cycle of goods.The levels of poverty decreased in the era.But with the calmness of that mutation, this was followed by a lost contract in which the standard of living.A huge corruption scandal, failed intervention policies during the reign of President Lula, Dilma Rousseff, and the mass protests that warned of its dismissal, were made, when it was then the worst stagnation in the country in 2015 to 2016.Despite the recent turmoil, its agricultural belt continued with a quiet revolution that helped strengthen its position as an agricultural power."Brazil was not foodful in the 1970s.We used to import everything, meat from Europe, milk from the United States, grains from Mexico, apples from Argentina..He adds, "In less than five years, we were able to create a sustainable tropical and competitive cultivation in the modern world.We have areas that we harvest two or three times a year..Many are concentrated in Serrado, or Savanna, in the highlands in the center of Brazil, which occupies more than five national lands.The new technologies and technological developments, and the conversion of forest lands led to the transformation of vast areas in places such as Mato Grosso into farms that remind us of the American Middle West..The results were great.Today, this South American country is the largest producer of soy and coffee beans as well as the largest source of both meat and sugar.ويقول خوسيه كارلوس هاوسكنيشت من شركة الاستشارات للأعمال الزراعية "aم بي أرغو كونسولتوريا"، "البرازيل بالفعل سلة خبز العالم.We have the largest agricultural commercial balance.When we look at future expectations, Brazil will increase its share in the global market..This has provided a rare luminous spot in the midst of local depression.With Brazil's gross domestic product decreased.1 percent last year during the pandemic, agriculture only recorded positive growth 2 percent.Agricultural business as a whole, which includes inputs, agriculture, livestock, treatment and services, increased its share in the economy during the pandem.وعلى الرغم من أسوأ موجة جفاف منذ ما يقارب القرن في وسط البرازيل وتوقعات نمو أكثر تواضعا، فمن المتوقع أن يحطم محصول الحبوب والبذور الزيتية رقما قياسيا في عام 2021، وفقا لهيئة الإحصاء البرازيلية "aي بي جي إي".ويقول بيدرو ديجنيكا من مجموعة معلومات السوق "aم دي كوموديتيز"، "في أعوام الأداء الضعيف التي شهدناها في الاقتصاد، كان أداء الناتج المحلي الإجمالي سيكون أسوأ لولا الصادرات الزراعية".While this has enriched a relatively small number of landowners and livestock breeders, it is not clear whether the new commodity boom, including sudden gains from the high prices of iron ore, will spread wealth on a larger scale throughout society.Marcus Fava Nevis, an agricultural business expert at the South Pacific University, notes to Riberao Brito as an example of how agriculture can stimulate urban development.He said, "When you go to these cities that have been built in the last 30 years, you will find that they include luxury hotels, restaurants, fitness centers and an ice cream store.Agricultural business brings money, then you see service companies thrive.There are four large shopping centers in Riberao - even for American standards, this is very much.The growth of opportunities in the countryside will be.Aruda from BNB Bariba admits that while there are indirect positive effects from the commodity sector, it has a concentrated impact on income that can exacerbate inequality..Where modern agriculture requires great property, but it requires little employment and depends less on other sectors, while effective taxes imposed on exports are usually low.He adds, "There is a very high productivity in the hands of a handful of people.".The decline in factories The growth of the agricultural sector in Brazil comes at a time characterized in the manufacturing sector.When Ford decided this year to stop manufacturing in Brazil after a century of work in the country, thousands of workers were amazed and a blow to the national nose.However, this was just one exit in a series of exit operations that entered the risk of danger.Where "Mercedes -Benz" stopped producing passenger cars shortly "although they are still making trucks", while brands, including Sony and Cannon also completed their operations as well..Paulo Gedis, Minister of Finance, commented on the agricultural business sector, which exceeds "transformational" industries, a wide term that includes all forms of manufacturing from plastic and pharmaceutical preparations to drinks and cars.He did not relieve his words, "We are slowly retreating in manufacturing, and this is bad for the country.".Ironically, this process is that the lack of steel and components led to the slow delivery of agricultural equipment.بمداخن مصانع البتروكيماويات ومصانع السيارات وورش العمل المعدنية فيها، كانت منطقة "aيه بي سي" على مدار عقود القلب الصناعي النابض لأكثر الولايات البرازيلية تطورا.But the three largest companies, "Sao Bernardo de Campo", had already had to deal with Ford's closure of its factory by losing nearly three thousand jobs in 2019.The mayor Orlando Morando insists that the decision was due to the global strategy of the American auto industry at that time, not because of local factors.The old site is now converted into a logistical center, where the municipality is looking to increase the diversification of its economy.ومع ذلك، لم تعد منطقة "aيه بي سي" نقطة جذب كما كانت في السابق للمهاجرين الداخليين من الولايات الفقيرة."In the past, the great wealth was concentrated in major cities.Today there is a great focus of wealth in the countryside..The direction of declining manufacturing has been taking place for a long time.Since the mid -eighties of the last century, the manufacturing share of GDP has decreased to half, according to the analysis of "Getolio Vargas" Foundation..Between 2013 and 2019, it lost 1.4 million industrial jobs, or 15 percent of the workforce, according to the numbers of the International Institute for Statistics and Geography.Experts say this is important because the industry tends to find safer job opportunities and has a stronger "double effect" on other areas of economic activity.Rafael Kaginin, an economist at the Institute of Industrial Development Studies, describes the Brazil experience as "premature", compared to the most advanced economies that were richer when the discharge began.He explains that the use of external sources of low -tech activities such as clothes, textiles and shoes in low -cost countries mostly occurs when the economy becomes richer, adding, "But in the Brazilian case, a large part of the premature decline in its premature manufacturing comes from more technological intensity activity, such as machinesEquipment, chemicals, petrochemical, and auto industry ".He adds, "[He] hindered the continued development of the country.".There are still undoubted examples of excellence.Empire, the third largest aircraft manufacturing company in the world, the jewel of the Brazilian engineering crown.But for Kaghnin, the "industrial fabric" as a whole may erode.Dependence on export, given that the prices of commodities tend to extreme volatility, the increase in dependence on such exports threatens to leave a country more vulnerable to the fluctuations of global courses, up and downwards.But the agricultural sector in Brazil is obscuring the discrimination that economists sometimes draw between the production of commodities, which is most likely to be a low value -added activity, and the most advanced products and services that generate greater wealth for society."الشركات التجارية الزراعية الآن ليست مجرد مزارع، لأننا نصدر التكنولوجيا والآلات والبرمجيات" بحسب دينيس أرويو ألفيس، مدير منظمة "aوربلانا" - جمعية لمنتجي قصب السكر، مضيفا، "لدينا كثير من الشركات الناشئة.It is a new economy in the countryside..For optimists, this provides an opportunity to stimulate the Brazilian industry and expand other continuous advanced activities.Among the heavy "smart" machines, self -driving tractors to "green" chemistry, electronics and computer programming, they say that there are great potentials if you have support and appropriate conditions.The prosperous scene of "Agricultural Technology" companies shows that many entrepreneurs have already understood this."Agricultural commercial companies can be a helping factor in re -manufacturing," says Kaginin..He explains, "Although this does not exist so far on a large scale, there are cases.".Given that the sellers of soybeans and beef in particular are under pressure to prove that their supply chains have nothing to do.With the threats of boycotting products from European consumers and supermarkets due to the eradication of the Amazon forests, the environmental protection is likely to become - given President Jayer Bolsonaro - a more important topic for major agricultural companies, as well as the issue of carbon removal.Both will include innovations, technology, research and development investments.However, many economists emphasize the need for deep reforms to help address the problem of notorious Brazil's cost - meaning the cost of doing business in Brazil - which hinders manufacturers.This will include dealing with Byzantine and exhausting bureaucratic taxes and troubled infrastructure - or not present, especially in the field of transportation.The draft tax reform law is now making its way to Congress.But with the coming of the elections in just one year, there are doubts about the political desire to make the necessary comprehensive changes.Unlike the last commodity boom, this time China is unlikely to return to the astronomical growth rates that turned it into a great commercial power.Many analysts expect a strong increase, but it is shorter, as warehouse stocks are renewed in the wake of the Coveyt chaos.."There will be a wave of accelerated growth that extends from two to three years..A great recovery, but after that it is unknown..

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